Thanks for clarifying that it is one ms. I wasn't clear as to whether it was one ms. or a bound compilation of several (with annotations by the same hand, presumably the compiler).mikeh wrote: 01 Sep 2025, 09:47 Thanks, Steve, for posting all the watermarks. I am not sure about your conclusion, "last quarter of the 15th century". For one thing, we can't allow storage time when subtracting from the 1515. If a watermark is in use in 1515, and it may have been in use for 20 years, or will be in use for 20 years, we can't tack storage time onto how much earlier the paper for that page of the ms. might have been made. Storage time is only after paper is made, not before. If one of the watermarks is 1515, then probably that paper was produced and used in 1495 or later. 1475 is just too early, even 1485. On the other end, paper with a watermark of 1462 can have been produced by 1482 and used even later, perhaps by 1492, even 1495. For one and the same manuscript of 407 folios, easy enough to do in one year, the overlap between early and late is rather small, 1495-1500, or at most 1490-1500, as Depaulis estimates. All this is assuming that there is a watermark in the ms. precisely similar to the one dated 1515, as opposed to 1503, and 1462 as opposed to 1473. Without the 1515 and 1462, it is more like 1480-1505. I'll write Decker about this issue.
I think the safest position is that the Steele Sermon manuscript belongs in the last quarter of the fifteenth century. That range covers Steele’s earlier suggestion of 1470/1480, as well as later estimates of 1490–1500. It’s really the only window we can all agree on with any confidence. Nathaniel makes a good case that the sermon itself may go back earlier (1460–1470).
About the “20 + 10 years” rule for watermark lifespan: If I am reading that Briquet data correctly then it is clearly unreliable and an arguably unrealistic measure. From Briquet we have examples where a watermark type lasted much longer - 38, 46, even 145 years.* For that reason, I tried a more conservative 30-year buffer instead. If you apply that to the Steele watermarks, you get an overlap around 1474–1492. That still lines up with the “last quarter of the 15th century” compromise, though it’s only an exercise and shouldn’t be treated as precise due to the speculative and unreliable nature of the measure.
Decker’s uncertainty over the “letter A” watermarks makes me wary of using the 1515 example as an upper bound, the two A types differ primarily in the vertical line of the 1515 example, which may not have been clear to the eye thus Decker says it is one OR the other. I’d lean toward the 1503–1504 examples instead, which avoids relying on a disputed identification.
As for the 1462 duck watermark, I haven’t discounted it since Decker doesn’t mark it as an “either/or” case with the other Duck WM, the two of which are clearly distinguishable from each other in size, shape and orientation.
So overall, I’d place the manuscript somewhere in the 1475–1495 range, which fits comfortably with the idea that it’s a product of the last quarter of the fifteenth century.
SteveM
* This is the case with Briquet who grouped some designs into a "family group" that were similar to each other but not identical, and thus could be found over large periods of time. Modern catalogues such as the Bernstein project subdivide Briquet’s broad groups into smaller, datable clusters.
When Decker gave Briquet numbers, did he intend them as exact matches? His use of “or” in the case of the letter A watermark shows he wasn’t always certain. His use of 'likenesses' seems he sometimes meant “this is the closest likeness I can find,” rather than “identical.” It’s hard to be sure how systematically he compared all possibilities, did he measure them or just compare visually.
Given the disparity between catalogued and extant watermarks, it is quite rare to find a WM you are searching for identical to one catalogued, and the odds of finding seven or eight matches? I imagine vanishingly small.
If the watermarks are identical to the Briquet numbers, then a 20 year window I think could arguably be a reasonable measure. Discounting the 2 type A's, which from Decker's doubts do not appear to be identical, we have 1504 -20 = 1484, 1462 +20 = 1482 +10 (storage) 1492, so an overlap of 1484 - 1492. Or if the 1504 had also been in storage then 1474-1492.
Some questions for Decker, for which he might hopefully have notes:
1. Folio Numbers:
Which folios contain watermarks? A list of the 25 folio numbers would be ideal.
2. Watermark Identifications:
For each watermarked folio, which Briquet number (if any) does it correspond to?
2a. Is it an identical match, or the closest likeness to be found?
3. Unmatched Watermarks:
Are there watermarks among the 25 that don’t correspond to Briquet entries?