About when the triumphs might have expanded from 14 (or 16, I would add, on the basis of Marziano's structure) in the game of triumphs (ignoring minchiate now), we have to bear in mind that we are talking about the situation in all the early centers of the game, or so I would hope: that is, first 14 or 16 everywhere, then at some point 22 everywhere, at least for trionfi. If so, one center could have added subjects earlier than the rest, the additions only spreading elsewhere later. Thus, Florence could have had all 22 by the early 1440s (or earlier, in my opinion), spreading to Bologna after Bologna became allied with Florence once Sante Bentivoglio came to power, then Milan by 1450, with the conquest of that city by Francesco Sforza, an ally of Florence. Or it could have gone in a series of additions, but the uniformity of subjects everywhere, which may have been a gradual thing, still controlled by Florence.It's possible that the 21+1 tarot structure emerged around the same time as the Minchiate deck, which already existed in 1466. The dates seem close for Minchiate I and Sermon Steele. Right?
As far as 21 + 1 everywhere, it seems to me that the best conditions for it are after 1450, when the game is legalized in Florence and the Peace of Lodi is approaching. Legalization and peace offer much opportunity for expansion. That is also when Francesco installs himself in Milan. Whether the Visconti-Sforza/PMB of 1456-8 had all 22, or even 20, is unknown, in my opinion - although at least 20 is likely, because of the association with Florence, which had the Charles VI.
But even 14 is not ruled out, a deck without virtue cards, where the virtues, it seems to me, could have been represented by the corresponding suit-signs (temperance = cups, prudence = coins, justice = swords, fortitude = staves), the Justice card elsewhere being converted to Fame, as Huck hypothesizes. The virtue/suit correspondences are indicated by the objects on the cards held, which correspond to objects held by the virtues. In this case, the object held by Prudence, a mirror, corresponds to Coins, and that by Fortitude a column, corresponding to Staves or Batons. These correspondences had already been articulated in the funeral oration for Gian Galeazzo Visconti in 1409, as Gertrude Moakley pointed out long ago:
It reappears in Ringhieri's Cento giuochi liberali et d'ingegno, 1550 Bologna, p. 132, in Google Books: Before 1440, it is really unknown how long the game existed, how the records would have referred to it, or who it was for. Something did happen around 1439-1440 in Florence to give the deck enough of a boost to make the records - I would suspect the Unity Conclave as the main culprit. Perhaps before then it was simply recorded as "naibi," cards, in arrest records, which are our only other evidence in Florence before 1450 (besides Giusti) and which do not record the name of the game played; or else it was ignored as merely a children's educational game unknown outside its native place, made more interesting by some new rules and/or expansion of the deck. This prior use is suggested by the fact that the game was ordered for two children aged 9 and 11 in the d'Este household of 1442. Or perhaps it was invented elsewhere than Florence, somewhere pre-1440 records of its existence have not survived the centuries; I am thinking especially of the burning of the Visconti Palace in 1447 and of the Bentivoglio Palace in 1507. There is no shortage of avenues for its transmission, although so far none has stood out in particular.O chiara luce, o specchio, o colonna, o sostegno, o franca spada, the la nostra contrada mantenevi sicura in monte e in piano!" (Arch stor tomb, anno xv, p. 792).
O clear light, o mirror, o column, o support, o confident sword, you kept our territory safe in the high places and the flat!
There are also the Rothschild cards, long attributed to Dal Ponte by some (including me rather extensively here in 2014, although I should have said "Dal Ponte workshop"). That workshop existed in Florence for many years before the master's death in 1437 or 1438. Is there anything about the the cards to suggest 1435 or later, except the assumption that the game of triumphs didn't exist before then? The Accademia Gallery's 2016 Dal Ponte exhibition in Florence gave the cards a "ca. 1425" dating in its catalog (Giovanni Dal Ponte, p. 128), even while noting Ross's article, which insisted upon 1437 or later. The caalog cited Belosi's classic analysis of 1985, comparing aspects of the cards to datable works of the workshop; it also noted the imperatori decks known to be produced in Florence in 1423 for the d'Este court. In addition (regardless of whether it is an Imperatori deck or not), I would note the similar design element of the Rothschild Emperor with the "Alessandro Sforza" Empress, namely the two small same-gender adult figures facing each other at the bottom of the card. This Empress is one of the two cards with 1428 or 1429 on them. The Scheggia workshop started in 1429.