It just doesn't make sense to me that it is a penis in his hand.
I have no problem accepting the penis on the Fool, so obviously Noblet was willing to have a penis where others shied away. I personally would even go so far as to say that I think the penis on the Fool is "authentic," and was probably original to the Tarot de Marseille pattern.
I can't explain with any certainty WHY it looks that way though. On one hand, I'd suggest that it's just a break on the woodblock. However, the line closes across the baton, which wouldn't happen (I don't think.. OnePotato?) in a break, but had to be "corrected" by hand. It also seems to me that something is "wrong" because his other fingers are missing.
On both the Fool and the Devil, Noblet went to the trouble to color the head of the penis red:
But didn't do this on the supposed penis on the Bateleur's wand.
I was excited when I found the Heri because I suspected it would answer the question once and for all.. but instead it makes it even more complicated:
What? Here Heri turns the hand, and I'm not even sure that's a baton at all in his hand... is it a horn? WHY would Heri do this? Is it because he was "correcting" the Noblet (or a deck similar to the Noblet but now lost to us)?
I don't have an answer to "what happened" to the Bateleur's baton, but I just don't think this was intended to be a penis. Then again, why didn't Noblet "correct" it if it is a mistake? Did he simply not care?