mikeh wrote:Huck wrote:1. An expensive game develops for the noble rich buyer: first phase 1440-1443
2. It's sold for the middle market, still too expensive for the low-price market: 2nd phase since 1449
3. The lower market is focused with cheap decks: 3rd phase since c. 1463
Yes, but "since c. 1463" covers quite a number of years. We cannot conclude that the Rosenwald is c. 1463.
Well, we have reason to assume, that the lower market proceeded till nowadays. The Rosenwald Tarocchi or Minchiate didn't make it so long. Naturally one cannot conclude, that the Rosenwald Tarocchi was from 1463, but one should see the possibility.
Thanks to the international success of Tarot our major topics are mainly about Tarot, not about Minchiate (let's assume 97% or so, just an estimation). So there seems to be the assumption, that Tarot has the major story already in 15th century, and about Minchiate one might forget. Tarot history (according the results of earlier research) took place in Milan-Ferrara-Bologna, and nobody thought of Florence ... beside Franco Pratesi.
Things have changed recently. Minchiate had a longer time more success than Tarot, at least in Italy. And Florence was in the early times of 15th century a hot place for playing card production. For the current state of research Florence seems to be the most probable place for the earliest decks with the name Trionfi. And Florence decided once against Tarocchi and pro-Minchiate or pro-Germini, at least in 1638, and after that till mid 19th century, there was no Tarot in Florence/Toscana. Franco Pratesi has proven that with many numbers and articles.
So there are reasons to study possibilities, even if they are only possibilities.
I am not against your speculations about the Rosenwald. I just don't find them any more reasonable than other people's speculations that the Rosenwald is a tarot, It still seems to me as reasonable as not to speculate that the fourth sheet had four repetitions of six cards.
We've the Angel higher than World ... as in Minchiate.
We've a X for Chariot (following the common counting) ... as in Minchiate.
We've no high virtues, but virtues in sequence ... as in Minchiate.
We've animal knights ... as in Minchiate.
We've female/male fante ... as in Minchiate.
We've a few things, which disturb the idea, that it is a Minchiate. Well, this naturally tells us, that it should be an early Minchiate or a Trionfi deck in Tarot form, which developed into Minchiate. But then it would be also rather early.