0 from c. 25 ...Ross G. R. Caldwell wrote:There's a document for 1445 now -Huck wrote:That's an older article, written in the time, when we didn't know as much as today. We had far less statistical material.

But the impressions are still the same as today. A hole in the documents 1442 - 1448, a peak, when the bigger development started. Although it's not mentioned in the article, it was suspected, that Borso's disinterest in Trionfi decks possibly referred to the begin of the use of mass production technology.

....

Any hole in the 1440s is now only 3 years at most. To that we should add the Brambilla and Cary Yale decks, which Bandera put at 1443-1445, because of Bembo's career, and without any theoretical agenda (such as proving an evolutionary hypothesis). To that we might add the Borromeo fresco, also dated mid-1440s, although in truth no Triumph cards can be seen (or were even seen in an old photo from before the bombing).

... is not so as bad as ...

... 1 from c. 100

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Imagine, you've a roulette with 25 possible results

you place 6 chips at the possibilities 1443, 1444, 1445, 1446, 1447, 1448 in each round.

0 from c. 25 is equal to ... In 25 rounds you lose 6x25 = 150 ...

1 from 100 is equal to .... In 100 rounds you win once 25, but you loose 6x99 = 594 ... this makes 594 minus 25 = 569 (loss naturally). That's worse.

Another way to observe the hole:

I just reduce it to 24 years, it's easier to calculate, cause the basic chance is then 1/4 , cause of 6/24.

It seems to me (I've math as an occasional hobby, I'm not a specialist), ...

that the chance, that you get none in 25 attempts is ...

1 : (4^25) / (3^25) = 1 : 1328.82691

... simplified "less than 1:1000"

... and the chance, that you get 1 in 100 attempts is ...

1: ((4^99) / (3^99)) / 4 = 1 : 5.84621702 × 10^11

... simplified a "1 : a number with 12 ciphers"

(... :-) ... a provisional "sorry" for the case, if would be wrong with it ...)

... and the latter should be smaller then.

Which means in short, that the "hole-phenomenon" in the distribution of the Trionfi notes has become much more manifest, as it had been before, in my humble opinion.

*************

But, actually the data used for this statistic is still rather small, so anyway that's all a little bit insecure. Maybe Franco with all his researcher talents finds a Florentine Trionfi specialist, who against all trends of his time produced 50 Trionfi decks for a secret circle market of Trionfi card lovers just in the time of "the hole" ... we would have then 50 documents, and all talk of a hole would look like rubbish, although it wouldn't be naturally so. It just would prove, that we have in our research a focus on a selected aim.

If we would take all data of general playing card research (under the condition, that we would have enough), we would get a more reliable statistic. But we have not enough of it, as far I know.

... :-) ... actually we're interested to find one of the first Trionfi card specialists.