Among the unique items in the Cary Collection are two fascinating groups of remnants of early Italian tarot packs. The tarot, originally a game of uncertain origin, came to be associated with fortune-telling, or cartomancy, several centuries after its appearance in central Europe in the late fourteenth century. Of the earliest surviving examples of the tarot, perhaps the most beautiful is the Visconti tarot of about 1445 (ITA 109), handpainted and gilded cards attributed to Bonifacio Bembo. The surviving sixty-seven cards are works of art, miniature medieval portraits. The Este tarot, from around 1450 (ITA 103) present a more simple vision of the tarot trumps, indeed a variant set from those of the Visconti, including the sun, the moon, the star, and a humble fool set upon by three small figures. In contrast, the Death trump from the Visconti set is painted as riding triumphantly over a crowd of unfortunates of all ranks.

Historical cities and earthquakes: Florence during the last nine centuries and evaluations of seismic hazard
E. Guidoboni, G. Ferrari

Abstract
The authors' aim in the following study is to contribute to the assessment of the seismic hazard of historical
cities. From this preliminary analysis the general characteristics of the seismicity affecting Florence and the
evaluation of its seismic hazard may be deduced. Florence is a <> city of world tourism, and its extraordinary
artistic value and its ability to be utilized constitute a great economic resource. From this perspective,
the authors have tackled some aspects of its urban features (demography and main building types, successive
phases in the growth of the city, etc.), aimed at the pooling of information as a basis for further, more specific
analyses of seismic risk. The study is based on a review of 131 seismic events of potential interest for the
site of Florence from the 12th century. In the case of each of these earthquakes, it was possible to verify the
real seismic effects sustained, and thus to assess the seismic intensity on the site. This also enabled the limits
in the application of the standard attenuation laws of to be checked. Of all the earthquakes analyzed. those
which caused the greatest effects on the urban area have also been identified: namely, the earthquake of 28 September 1453. and those of 18 May and 6 June 1895, both with Io=VIII MCS. From their overall analysis the authors have further extrapolated the necessary data to statistically evaluate the probabilities of any future earthquake occurring, according to intensity classes.

Il terremoto di Firenze del 1453 è stato un evento sismico verificatosi il 28 settembre alle ore 22:45 italiane nel capoluogo toscano e nell'area a est della città. La magnitudo momento stimata di quell'evento è stata di 5.3 della scala Richter, mentre l'epicentro stimato è stato nell'area collinare a nord-est di Firenze.

I principali effetti del sisma si verificarono a est della città, dove fu raggiunto il VII-VIII grado della scala Mercalli, mentre a Firenze gli effetti furono del VII grado della medesima scala.[1]

Una narrazione dell'episodio è riportata nel libro di memorie di Giovanni Chellini da San Miniato:

“Richordo che nello anno millequactrocentocinquantatre a dì XXVIII di settembre a hore cinque di notte venne nella città di Firenze il maggiore e più terribile terremoto che per li viventi ne nostri dì mai fosse udito o sentito e durò presso che uno ottavo d’ora, per paura del quale grande quantità di persone uscirono dalle case andando per le piazze e luoghi scoperti, a ciò non cadessero loro addosso case e altri edificii gridando per la città a Dio misericordia, cum molte laude e orationi ad alte voci. Li signori uscirono dal palagio in sulla piazza per paura e fra gli altri Piero di Cosimo de Medici, sendo in casa sua malato di gotti, si fece portare a molti giovani a san Marco e facesi mettere nell’orto di quelli frati e cum cuperture e cum fuochi che in detto orto fece accendere cum altri suoi di casa vi si stete quella notte e abondavavi tanta gente che bisognò serrare la porta che non vi intrasseno. Cosimo suo padre era in villa sua a Careggi, malato di gotti. Caddero molti edifici e in santa Reparata nella chiesa caddeno loro addosso delle loro case e molte altre cose nella città ruinarono, la maggior parte de cittadini notevoli e cavalieri tutti per la città fuor di loro case in luoghi di piazze e maxime sul prato della Nuntiata e di san Marco stava grande quantità di gente per paura. Dopo quello grande terremoto quella medesima notte ne vennero circa otto, ma non grandi, ne terribili come quello primo, posto assi spaventasseno la gente.

Di poi la seguente notte che fu a dì 29 di detto mese alle 4 hore venne uno terremuoto non grande a buon pezzo come il primo della passa notte e dopo esso due altri piccoli, pur quella notte gran gente albergò supra piazze e prati e in orti di frati e di spedali per paura e domattina a dì primo d’ottobre s’è ordinato divote processioni per insino a 4 dì.”[2]

Note[modifica | modifica wikitesto]
^ European Archive of Historical Earthquake Data, 28 settembre 1453, 22:45 Firenze., Emidius.eu. URL consultato il 21 dicembre 2014.
^ M. T. Sillano, Le ricordanze di Giovanni Chellini da San Miniato: medico, mercante e umanista (1425-1457), Milano, Franco Angeli Editore, 1984, pp. 195-196.

Well, it gives c1450 for the Este card, though we have usually 1473 or later for it cause of Aragon heraldry (or was there something else. But ... Leonello was also married to an Aragon princess.

The sentence "In contrast, the Death trump from the Visconti set is painted as riding triumphantly over a crowd of unfortunates of all ranks." is a little bit strange. In contrast to what? The d'Este Tarot hasn't a death card.

Huck wrote:Well, I don't think, that the cards are from 1450. I just noted the contradiction.

SteveM wrote:

Huck wrote:Well, I don't think, that the cards are from 1450. I just noted the contradiction.

Is the Aragon heraldry the only reason for the later dating? If not, what makes the earlier date (Leonello and Aragonese wife) less plausible?

mikeh wrote:I don't understand. Ferrara certainly had the tarot habit, viz. the 1442 purchase.

The situation of the early documents, in which the name "Trionfi" in context to playing cards appears, is as follows:
2 documents in 1442 (Ferrara)
0 documents in 1443 - 1448
6 documents in 1449 - 1452 (from 5 different places)
20 documents in 1453 - 1463 (1 entry from Bologna, 19 from Ferrara)
After the 2 first notes, which in their meaning are considered in the article Ferrara 1441 , there is a huge gap in the first years (1443 - 1448) with no notes about Trionfi decks at all.

A probability calculation, that this gap of "no entries" happened accidently, ends with a result from around 1 : 2000, which means, that it is highly unlikely, that this is an unsignificant, accidently sign of the process. It should be interpreted as a logical result of a specific unknown reality behind the entries, in this case it is likely, that there were in these years

A. either not many Trionfi decks at the begin of the development,
B. or that the name Trionfi was uncommon.

In the case of B. there should be another name watchable, which looks as replaced. Such a name is not known, so it looks likely, that this feature must be interpreted as "there were not many Trionfi decks in the begin" (which is a logical feature of a begin; all products start to exist only in small number).

However, the list of the 28 entries depends highly on the account books of Ferrara. Only 5 entries are notes outside of this city. These 5 entries are:

1449 Marcello-letter (related to Milano-Venetia-Padua)
1450 Sforza-letters (related to Milano and Lodi near Milano)
1450 Statute in Florence
1452 Malatesta-letter; (related to Rimini, Milano and Cremona)

1459 Rapture in Bologna

There is a clear peak of events outside of Ferrara in the years 1449 - 1452, additional to that also the entries in Ferrara restart after the above observed gap in time. All this together again seems to be remarkable, and looks like a rare, not accidently result, and it seems justified to drag from it conclusions about the distribution of Trionfi cards at this time.

Generally: A thing has a good chance to be mentioned somewhere (in this case mostly letters), when it is new to many people. So the later (after 1452) missing of Trionfi-notes outside of Ferrara beside the "rapture in Bologna" is "naturally", Trionfi had left then the state of being a novelty.
The entries from Ferrara one should exclude from this consideration, because there was a steady production of Trionfi and Trionfi-notes in Ferrara - cause the account books there reported simply expenses, a "novelty"-phenomen can't be observed by this. From the entries in Ferrara alone one should assume, that the interest in Trionfi is highest around the time of 1454, when a sort of Trionfi card manufacture existed at the Ferrarese court. In the political time this is parallel to the peace of Lodi 1454, which ended a periode of long wars and opened a longer phase of peace between the Italian cities, probably the Trionfi cards as a social phenomen helped to channel the aggressions in playing war only at the playing card table and not in reality.

From this the hypothesis can be builded, that Trionfi decks are new to most people in Italy in this time 1449 - 1452. As the decks are noted already in 1442 the years between 1442 and 1449 must be evaluated as a time, when the decks either existed only in small number or were only reachable to a smaller cycle of people, either chosen by location or social group.

The following graphic displays a view of the "peak of Ferrara-foreign events in the years 1449 - 1452" (red points), the continuous report of Ferrara (black points) with the "gap of entries in the years 1443 - 1448" and points to the great interest in the year 1454 (13 decks) by giving the number of decks we are talking of (lower line). Totally 44 decks are in the documents involved, three documents (M) speak of decks in a global manner, which points into the direction of mass production, 2 documents (R) in 1454 refer to special actions (no new decks involved).

We have no idea when the star, moon, and sun entered the tarot there. Maybe they were the ones who decided they didn't want the theological virtues. That there is a decrease in cheap decks in Florence doesn't mean that there would be no demand for a made to order luxury deck in Ferrara, made either there or even in Florence. Your statistics don't apply to marriage commemoration luxury decks.

SteveM wrote:I am not sure any 'probability calculation' is applicable here, with too little material for a statistical analasys of any significance.

That it conflicts with what we can imagine as there being a conflation of the theological virtues with star - moon - sun at a later date is no argument, perhaps what we can imagine is just that, a product of our imagination, a mere fantasy. As there being no record for a deck of cards being made for a marriage at this time, same applies to other decks as well, for which a marriage dating is argued.